The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported Saturday that the likelihood of an Atlantic system developing into a tropical depression or storm has decreased. The system, identified as Invest 91-L, is currently located in the central tropical Atlantic and contains only a small area of showers and thunderstorms.
“Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, and the chances of this system becoming a tropical depression continue to diminish,” forecasters said. “The wave is expected to move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.”
Forecasters expect the disturbance to approach the Lesser Antilles by mid- to late next week. The NHC now gives it a 20% chance of developing over the next two to seven days, which is lower than earlier projections that had estimated up to a 90% chance.
According to the National Weather Service in Melbourne, it remains too early to determine whether Florida will be affected by this system.
If Invest 91-L does develop further, it would become the seventh named tropical cyclone of the season and receive the name Gabrielle. So far this season, six storms have been named; only Hurricane Erin reached hurricane status, intensifying into a Category 5 storm with winds reaching 160 mph but not making landfall.
Earlier in August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its forecast for this year’s hurricane season. It now predicts between 13 and 18 named storms, with five to nine expected to become hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, two to five could reach major status at Category 3 or higher.
Hurricane season typically peaks from mid-August through October but officially runs from June 1 through November 30 each year.
